Sales Forecasting Management
A Demand Management Approach

Second Edition

John T. Mentzer - University of Tennessee, Knoxville, USA, Tennessee Department of Mental Health and Mental Retardation
Mark A. Moon - University of Tennessee-Knoxville, Tennessee, University of Tennessee-Knoxville, USA

Other Titles in:
Marketing (General)

February 2005 | 368 pages | SAGE Publications, Inc

Incorporating 25 years of sales forecasting management research with more than 400 companies, the Second Edition of Sales Forecasting Management truly integrates the theory and practice of sales forecasting management. This research includes the personal experiences of the authors in advising companies how to improve their sales forecasting management practices. Their program of research includes two major surveys of companies' sales forecasting practices, a two-year, in-depth study of sales forecasting management practices of 20 major companies, and an ongoing study of how to apply the findings from the two-year study to conducting sales forecasting audits of additional companies. The book provides comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sales forecasting analysis, combined with a managerial focus to give managers and users of the sales forecasting function a clear understanding of the forecasting needs of all business functions.

New to the Second Edition:

- The author's well-regarded Multicaster software system demo, previously available on cassette, has been updated and is now available for download from the authors' Web site

- New insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting are presented

- The results of additional surveys done since the publication of the first edition have been added

- The discussion of the four dimensions of forecasting management has been significantly enhanced

- Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition.

PREFACE

1. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING PROCESS

INTRODUCTION

A DEMAND MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO SALES FORECASTING

SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT

FORECASTS VERSUS PLANS VERSUS TARGETS

THE ROLE OF SALES FORECASTING IN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP)

WHY IS A SALES FORECAST NEEDED?

SUMMARY: ORGANIZATIONAL SALES FORECASTING NEEDS

THE TOOLS OF SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT

SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS

SALES FORECASTING AND PLANNING: AN ITERATIVE PROCESS

FUNCTIONAL SILOS

OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK
OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK

2. SALES FORECASTING PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

INTRODUCTION

SALES FORECASTING ACCURACY

SALES FORECOSTING COSTS

CUSTOMER SATISFACTION

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER--A FORECASTING ROI DECISION

CONCLUSIONS

3. TIMES SERIES FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

INTRODUCTION

FIXED-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES

FIXED MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES SUMMARY

OPEN-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES

SUMMARY

4. REGRESSION ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION

HOW REGRESSION ANALYSIS WORKS

THE PROCESS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING

FURTHER EVALUATION OF CANDIDATE MODELS

MODEL VALIDATION

AN EXAMPLE

CONCLUSION

NOTES

5. QUALITATIVE SALES FORECASTING

INTRODUCTION

QUALITATIVE FORECASTING: ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS

SUMMARY: QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUE ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS

QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS

MARKET RESEARCH TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING

DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING

SUMMARY

APPENDIX

6. SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS

INTRODUCTION

THE SALES FORECASTING SYSTEM AS A COMMUNICATION VEHICLE

MULTICASTER

SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS: SUMMARY

APPENDIX

7. BENCHMARK STUDIES: THE SURVEYS

INTRODUCTION

STUDIES PRIOR TO PHASE 1

PHASE 2 METHODOLOGY

FINDINGS COMPARING PHASE 1 TO PHASE 2

CONCLUSIONS FROM COMPARING PHASE 1 AND PHASE 2

SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS

SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT

FORECASTING IN CONSUMER VERSUS INDUSTRIAL MARKETS

CONCLUSIONS: INDUSTRIAL VERSUS CONSUMER FORECASTING

CONCLUSIONS FROM PHASE 2

8. BENCHMARK STUDIES: WORLD-CLASS FORECASTING

INTRODUCTION

FUNCTIONAL INTEGRATION

APPROACH

SYSTEMS

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

CONCLUSIONS

APPENDIX: SALES FORECASTING AUDIT PROTOCOL

9. BENCHMARK STUDIES: CONDUCTING A FORECASTING AUDIT

INTRODUCTION

THE ROLE OF AUDITING

MANAGEMENT RESPONSE TO AUDITS

CONCLUSIONS

10. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING FUNCTION

INTRODUCTION

THE ROLE OF THE SALES FORECASTING CHAMPION

THE SEVEN KEYS TO BETTER FORECASTING

WHY THE CEO SHOULD CARE

THE CEO SHOULD CARE AT TELLABS

CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

INDEX

"The authors have shared their valuable experiences and knowledge gained over the years while working with companies on sales forecasting. The book comprises of ten chapters in total and provides good coverage. The book well describes the issues, developments and required understanding about sales forecasting practices with illustrations and required possible information through appendixes and notes at the end of chapters where needed."

Anita Goyal

Management Development Insititute

The Journal of Business Perspective

"The book integrates the theory and practice of sales forecasting management by providing comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sale forecasting analysis. The second edition of the book provides new insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting. Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition. It will be very useful for academics as well as business executives who will find much of value and insight from the book."

B. D. Pande

Personnel Today